Pollsters Don’t Care If They’re Wrong This Time, Push Democrat Agenda
(HorizonPost.com) – Polling, methods, and veracity have been in the spotlight since some significant faceplants in the last few decades. Hillary was thought to be a shoo-in in 2016. Trump stunned the world.
There have been 32 national surveys conducted since the beginning of October using what pollsters refer to as a “generic congressional ballot.”
The pollsters question respondents who they would most likely vote for in an election, Republicans or Democrats, without mentioning any specific candidates.
Only two sources—Economist/YouGov and Politico/Morning Consult—showed Democrats leading among those 32 polls.
A few weeks ago, Economist/YouGov gave Democrats a four-point lead. Further, Politico/Morning Consult reported that Democrats were in the lead by five points.
However, according to every other pollster, Republicans were ahead in the general House election. The GOP leads Democrats by 3 points according to a running average of all polls put together by RealClearPolitics.
For the first time in Morning Consult tracking, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the general election ballot.
The Washington Post’s two leftist reporters who launched the website Politico have obviously been attempting to portray the election as being competitive. They are the last to make an effort to make their polls more accurate. Even the pro-Democratic website FiveThirtyEight.com, run by a former New York Times reporter, now predicts a 53% chance that the Republicans will take the Senate.
For comparison, pre-vote generic surveys in the 2014 midterm elections showed Republicans leading by 2.4 points. The actual result was almost twice as high: Republicans defeated Democrats by 5.7 points and gained 13 seats in the House and nine seats in the U.S. Senate.
In a poll conducted in 2010 by USA Today and Gallup, Republicans outperformed Democrats 49–43. Following the vote, the GOP won by a margin of 6.8 points, gaining six seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House.
In recent elections, the polls have consistently been erroneous, frequently showing Democrats in the lead only to be proven wrong.
The pollsters are aware that the Democrats can no longer be saved. In the days to come, observe how the margin widens even more.
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