US Intelligence and Pentagon Caution Against Changing Missile Policy for Ukraine

Aerial view of the Pentagon building and surrounding area.

US intelligence and Pentagon officials advise against providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, citing potential risks to American defense readiness and limited strategic impact.

At a Glance

  • U.S. military stockpiles could be depleted if long-range missiles are sent to Ukraine
  • Intelligence reports confirm Russia has moved 90% of aircraft out of potential strike range
  • Pentagon evaluation indicates potential risks outweigh tactical benefits
  • North Korea’s military support to Russia triggers consideration of additional sanctions
  • Some U.S. lawmakers push for expanded military aid to Ukraine despite concerns

Pentagon and Intelligence Community Urge Caution

The U.S. Intelligence Committee and Pentagon have recommended against allowing Ukraine to strike deep within Russia using American-made long-range missiles. This recommendation comes amid growing pressure from some lawmakers to provide Ukraine with advanced missile capabilities. However, military and intelligence experts argue that such a move could compromise U.S. defense preparedness without significantly impacting the conflict’s strategic landscape.

The analysis behind this recommendation reveals that Russia has already taken preemptive measures, relocating over 90% of its aircraft beyond the reach of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). This strategic relocation significantly reduces the potential effectiveness of these long-range missiles, should they be provided to Ukraine.

Limited Strategic Impact and Resource Concerns

Pentagon assessments indicate that changing the current missile policy would have minimal battlefield advantage for Ukraine. The limited number of viable targets within the 300-km range of ATACMS, combined with Russia’s proactive asset relocation, suggests that the strategic impact of such a policy shift would be negligible.

“It would be irresponsible if we didn’t take into account what Russia would do.” – U.S. official

Furthermore, military experts warn about the potential depletion of U.S. military stockpiles if long-range missiles are committed to Ukraine. The limited availability of ATACMS and concerns about maintaining U.S. defense readiness levels are significant factors influencing the recommendation against policy change.

Escalation Risks and Russian Retaliation

A key consideration in the decision-making process is the potential for Russian retaliation and conflict escalation. Defense officials emphasize the importance of a measured response to the conflict, taking into account Russia’s nuclear capabilities and past actions, including sabotage attempts.

“nuclear power capable of doing very bad things both to Ukraine and to the U.S.” – U.S. official

The Biden administration remains cautious about altering the current policy, recognizing the delicate balance required in providing support to Ukraine while avoiding actions that could provoke a wider confrontation with Russia.

North Korean Involvement and Sanctions Considerations

Adding further complexity to the situation is North Korea’s growing involvement with Russia. Reports of North Korean troops being sent to Russia have prompted the Biden administration to consider additional sanctions. This development introduces new variables into the conflict dynamics and decision-making process regarding military aid to Ukraine.

“We don’t exactly know what these guys are going to do. We don’t know what they’re going to do. We don’t know if they’re going to deploy into combat or not.” – Kirby

The uncertainty surrounding the role of North Korean soldiers in Russia and the potential implications if they engage in combat adds another layer of complexity to the already intricate geopolitical situation.

Ongoing Debate and Future Considerations

While President Biden has not ruled out future policy changes, the current assessment suggests little benefit in altering the existing missile policy for Ukraine. The administration continues to evaluate the situation, balancing the requests from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for advanced weaponry against the strategic and security considerations outlined by U.S. military and intelligence experts.

As the conflict evolves, the U.S. remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s defensive operations while carefully weighing the potential consequences of each decision on regional stability and global security.

Sources:

  1. Biden admin worried costs outweigh benefits of green-lighting long-range missiles for Ukraine: US official
  2. Biden admin worried costs outweigh benefits of green-lighting long-range missiles for Ukraine: US official
  3. Biden admin worried costs outweigh benefits of green-lighting long-range missiles for Ukraine: US official

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