(HorizonPost.com) – The first look at CNN’s 2024 “Road to 270” electoral map currently shows Joe Biden struggling to match his Electoral College majority from 2020, while Donald Trump, if he is the GOP nominee, has enough states that are either solidly red or leaning red to reach 270, the outlet reported.
As it stands now, ten months from the 2024 general election, Biden’s low approval numbers, coupled with concerns about his age and the dwindling support from key Democratic voting blocs, show that the president could have a hard time holding all of the states he won in 2020.
At the same time, if Donald Trump is the nominee, he would enter the general election race with baggage of his own. He is deeply unpopular and faces 91 criminal charges in four separate cases. Even many Trump supporters have said he should not be the nominee if he is convicted of any crime.
While CNN’s first look at the Electoral College landscape shows that the 2024 election could be a nail-biter, the landscape will likely change significantly after the nominating conventions this summer.
The purpose of CNN’s analysis was only to map out where things stand today, not to predict where things will stand in November.
CNN concedes that at this point, with the Iowa caucuses less than a week away, it isn’t certain which Republican candidate will win the nomination or if President Biden will even be the Democratic nominee.
The purpose of the exercise is to get an idea of where the Biden versus Trump match-up stands today. As the election season progresses, CNN will revise and adjust its electoral map.
If the trend from the last two presidential elections holds, the winner and loser in 2024 could be separated by fewer than 80,000 votes distributed across three battleground states.
CNN’s current electoral map is based on public and private polling, interviews with political operatives, campaign advisors, members of Congress, and outside groups who will be active in the 2024 election.
According to its initial map, CNN shows 28 states and one Maine district either solidly red or leaning red, which would total 272 electoral votes for Trump.
Meanwhile, the map shows 19 states and the District of Columbia either solidly blue or leaning blue. This would give Biden 225 electoral votes, 45 fewer than the 270 needed to win reelection.
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